Fall foliage expected to be excellent in lower Hudson Valley

GARDINER, N.Y. — A few trees around the Tri-State Area are already showing their true colors, but the display now pales in comparison to what’s in store about one month from now.
CBS News New York meteorologist Vanessa Murdock has your fall foliage forecast, which may be muted in spots because of an invasive species.
The blazing red of the Virginia Creeper grabs your attention. The Flowering Dogwood does not disappoint, displaying rich burgundy at Mohonk Preserve. The transition from green to oh my goodness is underway.
“The brilliance of the orange, yellow and red leaves. A lot of time when you see the sun go down it glistens off the tree. It’s beautiful,” one person said.
“A warm, fuzzy, peaceful feeling,” said Brent Penfold, of Montgomery, New York.
On a scale of 1 to 10, Penelope Adler-Colvin, the community science coordinator at Mohonk Preserve in Gardiner, says the 2024 fall foliage forecast is a 6 or 7, adding just how vibrant the display becomes is weather dependent.
“It should be a great season to view fall foliage,” Adler-Colvin said. “We really like to see warm days and cool nights.”
Cool nights signal trees to start their slumber. Chlorophyll breaks down unveiling true colors.
Adler-Colvin says a cooler than normal August at Mohonk, coupled with many crisp nights lately, could trigger an earlier start to leaf-peeping season.
Read more: Take a New York foliage ride by rail, water and air
The average peak through much of the lower Hudson Valley is mid-October. For much of Tri-State Area, it’s late October into the first week of November.
“I think we’re gonna have a great fall. I am hopeful for some rain, though,’ said Douglas Bartocci of Middletown, New York. “It will help with the leaves.”
Bartocci, an avid CBS News New York viewer, knows his stuff. Ample rain enriches Mother Nature’s fall spectacular. Monday marked nine days straight with no rain, but, thankfully, some is on the way.
Our warming climate means conditions here in the lower Hudson Valley are more hospitable to the hungry spongy moth.
The invasive species is a big reason Adler-Colvin’s forecast only lands at a 6 or 7, as moth-eaten leaves might mean a muted canopy where oaks are prevalent.
“The spongy moth caterpillars have had a boom year. They have eaten the foliage off of deciduous trees, like oaks,” Adler-Colvin said.
There is good news as you head south. The New York City Parks Departments says, “We do not expect spongy moth to significantly affect this year’s fall foliage in New York City.”